核心观点 公司经营向好，盈利能力持续提升，光通信与智能电网板块毛利率提升。2023 年以来公司持续中标国内外海上风电和海洋油气项目，在手订单充足。公司持续提升海工能力以及完善海缆产能基地布局，除常熟基地外，积极推动江苏射阳、广东揭阳海缆产能投产。结合各省海上风电规划，我们预计2025 年末我国海上风电装机量有望超60GW，意味着2024、2025 年新增装机近23GW。 2024H1 开工量一般，部分省份为完成“十四五”并网目标，预计2024H2、2025 年海风装机有望提速。此外，公司积极布局光模块、汽车线束等新业务领域，有望打开新增长空间。 事件 近日，公司发布2023 年报及2024 年一季报，2023 年公司实现营业收入476videopokergamesfreedownload.22 亿元，同比增长2.49%videopokergamesfreedownloadThe net profit of returning to the mother was 2.154 billion yuan, an increase of 35.77% over the same period last year, and the net profit of non-return was 2.033 billion yuan, an increase of 31.74% over the same period last year. 2024Q1, the company realized operating income of 11.785 billion yuan, an increase of 8.45% over the same period last year, a net profit of 513 million yuan, an increase of 29.87% over the same period last year, and a non-return net profit of 411 million yuan, an increase of 13.90% over the same period last year. Brief comments 1, business improvement, optical communications and smart grid plate gross profit margin increased. In 2023, the company realized operating income of 47.622 billion yuan, an increase of 2.49% over the same period last year, a net profit of 2.154 billion yuan, an increase of 35.77% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 2.033 billion yuan, an increase of 31.74% over the same period last year. The company has further strengthened the technical research and development and cost control of core products in the field of communications and energy, achieved good results in saving expenditure and reducing costs of major products, and promoted profitability. The gross profit margin of sales in 2023 was 15.31%, an increase in 1.14pct compared with the same period last year. The gross profit margin of the optical communications and smart grid sectors improved, of which the gross profit margin of the optical communications sector reached 29.36%, an increase of 9.27pct over the same period last year, and that of the smart grid reached 13.57%, an increase of 0.41pct over the same period last year. 2024Q1, the company continued to improve, with operating income of 11.785 billion yuan, an increase of 8.45% over the same period last year, a net profit of 513 million yuan, an increase of 29.87%, and a non-return net profit of 411 million yuan, an increase of 13.90% over the same period last year. 2. Ocean energy and ocean communications two-wheel drive, 2024 is expected to usher in an inflection point. 2024H2, sea breeze installation in 2025 is expected to speed up. According to CWEA, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is 37.7GW by the end of 2023. Considering the postponement of projects in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places, and combined with the offshore wind power planning of various provinces, we expect that the installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed 60GW by the end of 2025, which means that the installed capacity of offshore wind power in 2024 and 2025 is close to 23GW. 2024H1 construction volume is average, some provinces in order to achieve the "14th five-year Plan" goal, it is expected that 2024H2, 2025 sea breeze installation is expected to speed up. Since 2023, the company has continuously won the bid for offshore wind power and offshore oil and gas projects at home and abroad, with sufficient orders on hand, and has respectively won the sixth tender for Zhejiang Qiming Ocean Power Project in 2022, the 300MW capacity enhancement project of Xuwen offshore wind farm in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, the medium voltage submarine cable project in Thailand, the first phase 450MW of U site of wind power base in the South China Sea of Shandong Peninsula, etc. At the same time, the company continues to improve marine capacity, a new generation of deep sea large wind turbine installation ship is expected to be completed in 2024, after completion can be completed in the water depth of 70m offshore wind turbine hoisting and wind turbine foundation construction operations, the installed wind turbine capacity will be covered to 20 megawatts, can better meet the domestic and foreign offshore wind power capacity, far-reaching sea construction needs. The company's submarine cable production capacity layout has been continuously improved. in addition to Changshu base, the company has accelerated the construction of Sheyang submarine cable production base in Jiangsu Province, and the company has completed the first phase of Sheyang production base construction as planned. at the same time, promote the project construction of Jieyang marine energy production base. In terms of marine communications, the company is the only full-industry chain company with the R & D, production and manufacturing capabilities of submarine optical cables, submarine connector boxes, repeaters, branches, transoceanic communication network system solutions and transoceanic communication network system construction capabilities. By 2024, the global mileage of submarine optical cable delivery has exceeded 94000 km. By the end of 2023, the company has about 5.5 billion yuan in-hand orders related to marine communications business. In addition, the company is actively transforming from a "manufacturing enterprise" to a "platform service enterprise". The PEACE transoceanic cable communication system operation project, which is invested by the company, has a total length of 15800 kilometers. By connecting China-Pakistan cross-border land optical cable, PEACE submarine cable system will become the shortest submarine cable route connecting China and Africa, China and Europe. With the help of PEACE, the company increases cooperation with domestic and foreign operators to provide value-added services such as trans-foreign gas network leasing, operation and maintenance. 3. Actively lay out new business areas such as harness light module and automobile wire harness. The company demonstrated 400G and 800G products at the OFC2023 site, including 400G DR4 based on the latest silicon solution, and 400G FR4, 400G LR4 and 800G DR8 products based on EML solution. The company's 400G optical module products have been applied in small quantities in domestic and foreign markets. 800G optical module products have passed the test in the leading switch equipment manufacturers and will be introduced into mass production according to market conditions. The company specializes in the manufacturing and R & D of products in the field of new energy vehicles, automotive cables and high-voltage wiring harness have been shortlisted for AUDI, supporting Benz, SAIC, Dongfeng, Xilai, Xiaomi, Zero and other domestic and foreign mainstream mainframe factories, traditional and emerging car enterprises; the company's charging products have been equipped with large-scale state-owned network pile enterprises and mainstream charging pile enterprises, such as Xuji Electric, Guodian Nanrui, University of Science and Technology Intelligence, etc. 4. Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The management of the company is improving, the profitability continues to improve, and the gross profit margin of optical communications and smart grid plate increases. Since 2023, the company has continuously won bids for offshore wind power and offshore oil and gas projects at home and abroad, with sufficient orders on hand. The company continues to improve marine capacity and improve the layout of submarine cable production base, in addition to Changshu base, actively promote Jiangsu Sheyang, Guangdong Jieyang submarine cable production capacity. In addition, the company actively layout optical modules, car wiring harness and other new business areas, is expected to open up new growth space. We expect the company to achieve a homing net profit of RMB 263733,78max in 2024-2026, corresponding to PE 12.94Compact 10.10Mab 8.41X, maintaining a "buy" rating. 5. Risk hint. The development of offshore wind power is not as expected, there may be a gap between the planning volume and the actual landing volume and landing rhythm in some areas, the control in eastern Guangdong is relatively tight, the project examination and approval and storage may be slow, and the start-up progress of the company's Jieyang plant is not as expected; offshore wind power competition intensifies, domestic offshore wind power demand is good, new entrants emerge one after another, or intensify competition in the low-end submarine cable market. European and American countries restrict the export of sea optical cable on the grounds of information security; the demand of the optical fiber and cable industry is declining, competition intensifies, and prices fall again; the profit and loss of changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets affect the company's profits; car wiring harness, silicon modules, smart cities and other new business development is not as expected; the proportion of major shareholders pledge is higher. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.